Rent Convergence and Development Appraisals: What Every ProVal User Needs to Know

The UK’s social housing sector is preparing for a new 10-year rent settlement from April 2026 (annual CPI + 1%). Alongside this, government is consulting on how to implement rent convergence: the process of aligning council and housing association rents with the government’s “formula rents.” 

For housing associations, local authorities, and developers who rely on ProVal for their financial appraisals, the implications are significant. Rent policy directly affects the income line of every scheme, and therefore the viability of entire development programmes. 

This blog provides a comprehensive overview of what rent convergence means, why it matters for appraisals, and how you can use ProVal to navigate the risks and opportunities.

What is Rent Convergence? 

At its simplest, rent convergence is the mechanism that gradually moves actual rents towards government-calculated formula rents. 

• Formula rent is based on a standard calculation: 
  • 30% property value 
  • 70% local earnings 
  • number of bedrooms 
• Historically, council rents and housing association rents were set differently, leading to big disparities for similar properties in the same area. 
• Convergence was introduced in the early 2000s as part of rent restructuring but was paused in 2015 when the government imposed 1% rent cuts. 

The 2026 rent settlement revives the idea: allowing landlords to apply an additional £1–£3 per week on top of CPI + 1% annual increases until rents catch up with formula rent levels.

Rent Restructuring

Rent restructuring was the original policy framework introduced in 2002, designed to move social housing rents gradually towards formula rents by 2012. Under this system, landlords could increase rents each year by inflation + 0.5%, plus up to £2 per week, to close the gap between actual and formula rents. The intention was fairness, ensuring similar properties in the same area had comparable rents regardless of landlord. However, the target date for full convergence was extended several times, and many landlords had not yet achieved it before the policy was effectively abandoned.

Rent Caps

Rent policy has also been shaped by political interventions in the form of rent caps. The most significant recent example was the four-year rent cut from 2016–2020, when social landlords were required to reduce rents by 1% each year. This significantly reduced sector income, forcing housing associations and councils to scale back development and investment programmes. More recently, in 2023/24, the government imposed a 7% cap in response to the cost-of-living crisis, prioritising tenant affordability over landlord business plans. These caps illustrate the inherent policy risk that landlords must model into long-term financial planning, making sensitivity testing in tools like ProVal even more critical. 

Why is it Important Now? 

The timing of convergence is crucial: 

• Policy certainty: Landlords are under pressure to plan long-term investment programmes, deliver new supply, and fund compliance with Decent Homes Standard (DHS), Minimum Energy Efficiency Standards (MEES), and Net Zero. A clear rent policy underpins that business planning. 
• Sector health: Savills analysis for CIH and ARCH shows that only £2–£3 per week convergence will restore national Housing Revenue Accounts (HRAs) to cumulative surplus by the mid-2030s. Anything less risks underfunding stock investment and new development. 
• Tenant fairness: For tenants, convergence is about equity. Why should one household pay £95/week and another £110/week for near-identical homes, purely because of landlord history?

How Does Rent Convergence Affect a ProVal Appraisal?

In ProVal, the rental income profile is the lifeblood of your appraisal. Rent convergence shifts that profile upwards in three ways: 

1. Starting Rent Level
   1. With convergence, Year-1 rent is higher. 
   2. Example: £100/week baseline vs £105/week under a £2 uplift. 
2. Growth Trajectory
   1. CPI + 1% is applied to a higher base, compounding over 30 years.
   2. Convergence shortens the time it takes for rents to reach formula level.
3. Total Scheme Cashflow
   1. Over 30 years, a £2/week uplift adds £3m+ cumulative income for a 50-unit scheme.
   2. That directly improves NPV, IRR, and payback.

A Worked Example 

We modelled a 50-unit social rent scheme in ProVal terms under different convergence assumptions. 

Assumptions 

• Development cost (after grant): £8m 

• Start rent: £100/week vs formula £110/week (gap £10) 

• Rent inflation: CPI + 1% (3% p.a.), CPI at 2% 

• Operating costs: £2,900 per unit (Y1), inflating with CPI 

• Voids & bad debt: 2% 

• Discount rate: 5.5% 

• Horizon: 30 years

Results

Nubmers are used for illustration purposes only

Insights

• Even small uplifts deliver meaningful long-term gains. 

• £2–£3/week convergence is needed to materially improve viability. 

• Without convergence, schemes remain marginal, reinforcing CIH’s call for stronger policy support.

Practical Steps for ProVal users

1. Update Global Parameters
   1. Inflation: CPI at 2%
   2. Rent inflation: CPI + 1%
   3. Discount rate: 5.5% (or your corporate standard)
   4. Voids/bad debt: 2–3%
2. Model Rent Convergence
   1. Set Year-1 rents at current levels.
   2. Add a “rent supplement” for convergence (e.g. £2/week) until formula level is reached.
3. Scenario Testing
   1. Run £0/£1/£2/£3 per-week scenarios.
   2. Present boards with a sensitivity table to show how viability shifts.
4. Tenure Strategy
   
   1. Compare social rent vs affordable rent outcomes under convergence.
   2. Stronger social rent cashflows may justify higher proportions of social rent in new schemes.
5. HRA Business Planning
   1. For councils, model convergence at portfolio level to see the impact on borrowing headroom and stock investment.

Key Takeaways

• Rent convergence is not just a technical detail: it’s a viability lever that directly affects your ability to deliver new homes. 

• For ProVal users, building convergence assumptions into your appraisals is essential for robust business planning. 

• Scenario testing is critical: boards need to understand the policy risk around whether convergence is set at £1, £2, or £3 per week. 

• Convergence doesn’t just improve scheme viability, it underpins the financial resilience of the sector to meet Decent Homes, Net Zero, and new supply challenges.

💡 SDS Insight

At SDS, we believe rent policy and financial modelling should go hand in hand. ProVal gives you the tools to translate national policy shifts like rent convergence into local scheme-level impacts, helping you make better decisions, secure funding, and keep development programmes on track.

Disclaimer: SDS provides financial modelling tools to support the housing sector. We have no role in, or influence over, government rent policy or the current consultation on rent convergence. The content above is intended for information and training purposes only.